30 Apr Paradigm shift that happened throughout history in economics: What role do models play in acquiring knowledge?
What if I told you that in economics, something can work in practice, but not in theory?
Today, we’re diving into how economic models shape not just what we know, but how we think—and even how we behave. From free-riders to paradigm shifts, and a curious idea that economists should be like… dentists. Let’s begin.
I’ll briefly describe the paradigm shifts that have happened throughout history in economics. In particular, I will try to answer the question: What role do models play in acquiring knowledge?
I want to begin with a quick joke—well, it’s more of a realistic quote, but economists think it’s hilarious.
So, someone says:
‘This policy seems to work in practice!’
And the economist replies:
‘Yes, but does it work in theory?’
Now, why is that funny?
Because it shows how deeply committed economists are to their models, sometimes, even more so than to reality itself, and I don’t think I’m exaggerating a single bit.
In economics, models are like maps. They are necessary to simplify reality, so we can better understand how things work—how people behave, how markets function, or how governments might influence economic outcomes. But models are not neutral. They reflect the assumptions and values of the people who build them.
Let’s take the example of the free-rider problem—a famous economic model used to explain why people might avoid contributing to public goods like clean air, national defence, or even group work.
The model assumes people act rationally by acting selfishly. And once you build a model on that assumption, you start to expect selfish behavior. Worse, you may begin to design policies that encourage it.
Jonathan Aldred, in his book “License to Be Bad,” argues that this model, originally meant to warn us, has shaped how we act. If we keep telling people that everyone will cheat if given the chance, they may start believing it and acting that way. So in this case, the model doesn’t just describe reality—it starts to create it.
This is where paradigms come in. As the Oxford Economics textbook explains, using Thomas Kuhn’s theory, a paradigm is a shared framework for thinking in a discipline. For centuries, economics was based on the classical paradigm: that markets are efficient and that individuals pursuing self-interest will produce the best outcomes.
But when the classical economic paradigm couldn’t explain events like the Great Depression in the 1930s of the 20th century, a new paradigm—Keynesian economics, one of the rare economic perspectives named after its founder, John Maynard Keynes—emerged.
Paradigm shifts in economics often happen because existing models fail to explain anomalies. But as Kuhn said, these shifts are hard. People, and that goes for economists too, resist changing the models they’ve been trained to use.
Dani Rodrik adds another critical point in his book Economic Rules. He says economics doesn’t have one model—it has many. And each model is like a tool in a toolbox. The real skill is not picking the best model, but knowing which model fits which situation. That means economists must make judgments, and those are not always purely technical. They’re also moral and political.
In economics, models play a crucial role in generating knowledge. But they also do more than that—they influence behaviour, shape policy, and reflect our values. That’s why, as Joan Robinson, a friend and friendly critic of John Maynard Keynes, said, “the purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.”
"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists." —Joan Robinson
That might sound a bit cynical, but it’s very much in the spirit of TOK.
Robinson has warned us that economists who claim to be ‘neutral technicians’ may be hiding their values inside their models. That’s dangerous because models can carry enormous moral and political consequences, especially when they influence policy and real people’s lives.
In TOK, we might say: models are tools—but also traps.
The next subquestion in today’s short quest of what role models play in the acquisition of knowledge, particularly in economics, I’m going to ask is:
Should Economists Be Like Dentists?
This idea, that economists should be like dentists, comes from Milton Friedman, one of the most influential economists of the 20th century. He once said that economists should be like dentists—neutral, technical experts who apply knowledge to solve problems.
Just as a dentist doesn’t make moral judgments about our teeth, an economist, in Friedman’s view, shouldn’t make value judgments about the economy. In Friedman’s view, economists should use the most efficient model and fix what’s broken.
But this view was firmly rejected by John Maynard Keynes. Keynes believed that economics is not a natural science like physics or biology. He described it as a moral science. That means that economists must not only use models—they must also choose which models are appropriate, and that requires judgment, reflection, and values. As he wrote in a letter:
"Economics is a science of thinking in terms of models joined to the art of choosing models which are relevant to the contemporary world." —John M. Keynes
And he added:
""Economics is essentially a moral science and not a natural science." —John M. Keynes
To make this even more vivid, let me bring in another contemporary economist: Kate Raworth, author of Doughnut Economics.
In a recent article for the International Monetary Fund, Raworth says that economics is often presented as if it were a single, neutral truth. In reality, what’s taught in classrooms is
“Just one contender in a decades-old boxing match over economic ideas.” —Kate Raworth
But here’s the key point:
Raworth doesn’t want us to choose a side in that boxing match.
She argues that both the Friedmanite and the Keynesian worldviews are still locked into a 20th-century mindset. One sees the market as the solution, the other considers government intervention.
But, as I hope we can all imagine, neither is enough to deal with today’s challenges, such as climate change, inequality, or ecological limits.
So instead of picking a winner, Raworth says:
We need to step outside the ring entirely and start thinking differently about what economics is for and who it serves. In her words, we need a new compass for economics—one that prioritizes thriving within planetary boundaries, not just maximizing growth or efficiency.
So here’s our TOK question:
Should economists be neutral technicians, moral judges, or visionary designers of the future? In other words, is economics about fixing what’s broken… choosing the right tools… or redefining the goal altogether?”
Let me know in the comments of this post or video below who thinks economists should be:
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“neutral technicians,”
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“moral judges,”
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“visionary designers of the future”?
P. S. In the TOK class, as I was presenting this topic, out of 20 students, one voted for one, two for two, and the rest, seventeen, for the third option, visionary designers of the future. What does that tell us?
Sources and recommended reading
- Aldred, J. (2019). Licence to be Bad. Penguin UK.
- Burghaus, K., Dullien, S., Ottmar Edenhofer, Fratzscher, M., Horn, G. A., Jacobs, M., Jakob, M., Knopf, B., Koch, N., Laybourn-Langton, L., Odendahl, C., Ragot, X., Moritz Schularick, Tilford, S., & Zimmermann, K. (2018). A New Economic Paradigm. Intereconomics, 2018(3), 112–112. https://www.intereconomics.eu/contents/year/2018/number/3/article/a-new-economic-paradigm.html
- Kuhn, T. S. (2012). The Structure of Scientific Revolution. University Of Chicago Press. (Original work published 1962)
- Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think like a 21st-century economist. Chelsea Green Publishing.
- Raworth, K. (2024, March). POINT OF VIEW: A New Compass for Economics by Kate Raworth. IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Point-of-view-a-new-compass-for-economics-Kate-Raworth
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